Manifold is a play-money prediction market with millions of predictions and ~2,000 peak daily users, showing AGI by 2030 at ~60% vs Metaculus ~45%. Platform scored Brier 0.0342 on 2024 election (vs Polymarket's 0.0296), demonstrating play-money markets can approach real-money accuracy but with systematic liquidity limitations.
AI for Human Reasoning FellowshipApproachAI for Human Reasoning FellowshipFLF's inaugural 12-week fellowship (July-October 2025) combined research fellowship with startup incubator format. 30 fellows received $25-50K stipends to build AI tools for human reasoning. Produc...Quality: 55/100
Analysis
ForecastBenchProjectForecastBenchForecastBench is a dynamic, contamination-free benchmark with 1,000 continuously-updated questions comparing LLM forecasting to superforecasters. GPT-4.5 achieves 0.101 Brier score vs 0.081 for sup...Quality: 53/100MetaforecastProjectMetaforecastMetaforecast is a forecast aggregation platform combining 2,100+ questions from 10+ sources (Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket, etc.) with daily updates via automated scraping. Created by QURI, it pr...Quality: 35/100Anthropic IPOAnalysisAnthropic IPOAnthropic is actively preparing for a potential 2026 IPO with concrete steps like hiring Wilson Sonsini and conducting bank discussions, though timeline uncertainty remains with prediction markets ...Quality: 65/100Anthropic (Funder)AnalysisAnthropic (Funder)Comprehensive model of EA-aligned philanthropic capital at Anthropic. At $380B valuation (Series G, Feb 2026, $30B raised): $27-76B risk-adjusted EA capital expected. Total funding raised exceeds $...Quality: 65/100
Organizations
The Sequences by Eliezer YudkowskyOrganizationThe Sequences by Eliezer YudkowskyA foundational collection of blog posts on rationality, cognitive biases, and AI alignment that shaped the rationalist movement and influenced effective altruismQuality: 65/100Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF)OrganizationLong-Term Future Fund (LTFF)LTFF is a regranting program that has distributed $20M since 2017 (approximately $10M to AI safety) with median grants of $25K, filling a critical niche between personal savings and institutional f...Quality: 56/100PolymarketOrganizationPolymarketThis is a comprehensive overview of Polymarket as a prediction market platform, covering its history, mechanics, and accuracy, but has minimal relevance to AI safety beyond brief mentions in the EA...Quality: 33/100Kalshi (Prediction Market)OrganizationKalshi (Prediction Market)This is a corporate profile of Kalshi, a US prediction market platform regulated by the CFTC. The page covers its founding history, fee structure, regulatory disputes, partnerships, and AI-related ...Quality: 25/100Manifold MarketsOrganizationManifold MarketsPlay-money prediction market where anyone can create markets on anything. 200,000+ active markets. Popular in EA/rationalist communities. Enables rapid information aggregation on niche topics.
Other
Leopold AschenbrennerPersonLeopold AschenbrennerComprehensive biographical profile of Leopold Aschenbrenner, covering his trajectory from Columbia valedictorian to OpenAI researcher to $1.5B hedge fund founder, with detailed documentation of his...Quality: 61/100Robin HansonPersonRobin HansonComprehensive biographical entry on Robin Hanson covering his contributions to prediction markets, futarchy governance, and skeptical AI safety positions. The page provides valuable context on a si...Quality: 53/100Evan HubingerPersonEvan HubingerComprehensive biography of Evan Hubinger documenting his influential theoretical work on mesa-optimization/deceptive alignment (2019, 205+ citations) and empirical demonstrations at Anthropic showi...Quality: 43/100Eliezer YudkowskyPersonEliezer YudkowskyComprehensive biographical profile of Eliezer Yudkowsky covering his foundational contributions to AI safety (CEV, early problem formulation, agent foundations) and notably pessimistic views on AI ...Quality: 35/100Neel NandaPersonNeel NandaComprehensive biographical profile of Neel Nanda covering his role as DeepMind's mechanistic interpretability team lead, key contributions (TransformerLens, Gemma Scope, grokking paper), and his ev...Quality: 26/100Dan HendrycksPersonDan HendrycksComprehensive reference biography of Dan Hendrycks (CAIS director), covering his academic career (GELU, MMLU, OOD detection), CAIS founding and funding (including $6.5M FTX, Open Philanthropy/Coeff...Quality: 19/100