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3/5

Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus

This Metaculus question is frequently cited in AI safety discussions as a crowd-sourced benchmark for AGI timeline expectations; useful for comparing against expert forecasts and tracking how community estimates evolve.

Metadata

Importance: 55/100tool pagereference

Summary

A Metaculus forecasting question tracking community predictions on when artificial general intelligence will be achieved. Aggregates probabilistic estimates from forecasters worldwide, providing a crowd-sourced timeline estimate for AGI development.

Key Points

•Aggregates predictions from a large community of forecasters on AGI arrival date
•Provides probabilistic distributions rather than single-point estimates, capturing uncertainty in AGI timelines
•Serves as a real-time, continuously updated reference for consensus views on AGI timelines
•Question resolves based on a specific definition of AGI, making the operationalization of AGI explicit
•Useful for tracking how community forecasts shift over time as AI capabilities advance

Cited by 2 pages

Page	Type	Quality
AGI Timeline	Concept	59.0
Capability-Alignment Race Model	Analysis	62.0

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[**592** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/#comments)

**1.7k** forecasters

# When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

11 Apr 2028

202020202020202020212021202220232024202720302036204220552074209621412200

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Top Key Factors

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↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals

Impact

later

Strength

3 votes

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Impact

Earlier

Strength

29 votes

↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes

Impact

later

Strength

2 votes

AI become student of arts university in Vienna

Impact

later

Strength

24 votes

↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings

Impact

later

Strength

2 votes

CommentsTimelineKey FactorsQuestion Info

Timeline

1d1w2mall

14 Aug 202401 Feb 202628 Dec 202717 Mar 2030May 203314 Aug 202401 Feb 202628 Dec 202717 Mar 2030May 2033

Jan 20Jan 22Jan 24Jan 26Jan 28Jan 30Feb 01Feb 03Feb 05Feb 07Feb 09Feb 11Feb 13Feb 15Feb 17Feb 19Feb 21Feb 23Feb 25Feb 27Mar 01Mar 03Mar 05Mar 07Mar 09Mar 11Mar 13Mar 15Mar 17Mar 1911 Apr 2028

Resolution Criteria

Key Factors

Background Info

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Authors:

[Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/)

Opened:Jan 18, 2020Jan 18, 2020

Closes:Jan 1, 2200Jan 1, 2200

Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200Jan 1, 2200

Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020Jan 20, 2020

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