Back
Metaculus Question: When Will the First General AI System Be Devised, Tested, and Publicly Announced?
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus
A community forecasting question useful for understanding how predictions about AGI timelines have evolved; often referenced when discussing how seriously to weight near-term AI risk scenarios in safety planning.
Metadata
Importance: 45/100otherreference
Summary
A Metaculus forecasting question asking community members to predict when the first generally capable AI system will be created and publicly announced. The question aggregates probabilistic forecasts from many forecasters to produce a community estimate on AGI arrival timing.
Key Points
- •Crowdsourced prediction market question tracking community estimates for AGI development timeline
- •Aggregates probabilistic forecasts from many participants to produce consensus timeline estimates
- •Relevant to AI safety planning as timelines affect urgency and resource allocation for safety research
- •Metaculus questions on AGI are frequently cited in discussions about AI development pace and risk
- •Forecast distributions have shifted over time, reflecting evolving community views on AI progress
Cited by 4 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AGI Development | -- | 52.0 |
| AGI Timeline | Concept | 59.0 |
| AI Risk Critical Uncertainties Model | Crux | 71.0 |
| Frontier AI Company Comparison (2026) | -- | 52.0 |
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Feb 26, 202630 KB
[**650** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/#comments)
**1.8k** forecasters
# When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Apr 2033
20202079
Share
Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (10)
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Impact
later
Strength
8 votes
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
Impact
Earlier
Strength
14 votes
China starts a war with Taiwan
Impact
Earlier
Strength
83 votes
Strong regulation of AI companies by US government
Impact
Earlier
Strength
50 votes
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Impact
Earlier
Strength
5 votes
AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing
Impact
later
Strength
0 vote
Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)
Impact
later
Strength
8 votes
Genuinely good US government policy on AI safety (something like SB 1047)
Impact
later
Strength
6 votes
CommentsTimelineKey FactorsQuestion Info
Timeline
1d1w2mall
Sep 2031Sep 2037Sep 2043Oct 2049Sep 2031Sep 2037Sep 2043Oct 2049
Dec 27Dec 29Dec 31Jan 02Jan 04Jan 06Jan 08Jan 10Jan 12Jan 14Jan 16Jan 18Jan 20Jan 22Jan 24Jan 26Jan 28Jan 30Feb 01Feb 03Feb 05Feb 07Feb 09Feb 11Feb 13Feb 15Feb 17Feb 19Feb 21Feb 23Feb 25Apr 2033
Resolution Criteria
We will thus define "an AI system" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.
- Able to reliably pass a 2-hour, adversarial Turing test during which the participants can send text, images, and audio files (as is done in ordinary text messaging applications) during the course of their conversation. An 'adversarial' Turing test is one in which the human judges are instructed to ask interesting and difficult questions, designed to advantage human participants, and to successfully unmask the computer as an impostor. A single demonstration of an AI passing such a Turing test, or one that is sufficiently similar, will be sufficient for this condition, so long as the test is well-designed to the estimation of Metaculus Admins.
- Has general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators and when given human-readable instructions, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2021 Ferrari 312 T4 1:8 scale automobile model](https://web.archive.org/web/20250109024142/https://www.deagostini.com/uk/assembly-guides/). A single demonstration of this ability, or a sufficiently similar demonstration, will be considered sufficient.
- High competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q\\&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).
- Able to get top-1 strict accuracy o
... (truncated, 30 KB total)Resource ID:
bb81f2a99fdba0ec | Stable ID: YzE3YjNhYj