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# Models

[morpheus](https://squigglehub.org/users/morpheus)/ [IQ\_enhanced\_reprogenetics\_humans](https://squigglehub.org/models/morpheus/IQ_enhanced_reprogenetics_humans)

UpdatedMay 8, 2026

```
/*
Describe your code here
*/
max_years_until_impact = 60
// Idea: It feels like AI taking off makes the concept of time less useful as a variable in the scenarios where we get meaningful speedup in research before doom. In that case perhaps it would make sense to model it such as if AI is coming later in "progress years" so to the extend that it is possible to do faster bio research for those periods, it might be sensible to think of it in the same way as it does to think of it as having more time?

future_mass_before_agi(x) = 1 - cdf(Sym.lognormal(2.2, 2), x)
years_until_super_babies = Sym.lognormal(3, 0.7)
super_baby_growup = Sym.normal(18, 2)
grown_up_super_babies(x) = cdf(years_until_super_babies + super_baby_growup, x)
```

[ElZorro](https://squigglehub.org/users/ElZorro)/ [probability-a-Russian-man-of-fighting-age-dies-in-Ukraine](https://squigglehub.org/models/ElZorro/probability-a-Russian-man-of-fighting-age-dies-in-Ukraine)

UpdatedMay 4, 2026

```
 p_drafted = 0.05 to 0.30
  p_die_given_drafted = 0.05 to 0.30
  p_death = p_drafted * p_die_given_drafted

  russian_deaths = 1.5e5 to 5e5
  russia_population = 1.25e8 to 1.55e8
  share_male = 0.5
 share_fighting_age = beta(40, 60)
  p_death_sempere = russian_deaths / russia_population / share_male / share_fighting_age

```

[aim](https://squigglehub.org/groups/aim)/ [clinics](https://squigglehub.org/models/aim/clinics)

UpdatedMay 1, 2026

```
// Total population
tcd_pop = normal({p5:16343231,p95:22494774})
caf_pop = normal({p5:5346925,p95:7814208})
ner_pop = normal({p5:23264141,p95:30200196})
mli_pop = normal({p5:22371158,p95:26038039})
sle_pop = normal({p5:7396538,p95:8648290})
ssd_pop = normal({p5:8293052,p95:11407307})
bdi_pop = normal({p5:12024009,p95:16677804})
som_pop = normal({p5:15525542,p95:27842362})
mdg_pop = normal({p5:27873947,p95:33799461})
```

[Chessgecko](https://squigglehub.org/users/Chessgecko)/ [dave-lbe](https://squigglehub.org/models/Chessgecko/dave-lbe)

UpdatedApril 8, 2026

```
/*
  LBE_1
  Notebook Dashboard UI
*/

// --- 1. IP & MARKET BASE ---
tax_rate = 0.30              // Corporate Tax Rate
ip_royalty_rate = 0.30       // 30% off Top-Line Gross Revenue
ticket_price = 60 to 90     // Premium pricing justified by Anime IP
marginal_cost_pp = 2 to 5
```

[OscarD](https://squigglehub.org/users/OscarD)/ [saving-for-galaxies](https://squigglehub.org/models/OscarD/saving-for-galaxies)

UpdatedMarch 30, 2026

``

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