Squiggle
activeDomain-specific programming language for probabilistic estimation with native distribution types and Monte Carlo sampling.
Organizations
2| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | Nonprofit research organization developing tools for probabilistic reasoning, forecasting, and epistemic infrastructure. Key projects include Squiggle (probabilistic programming language), Squiggle Hub (model sharing platform), Metaforecast (forecast aggregation), SquiggleAI (LLM-powered estimation), RoastMyPost (LLM-powered content evaluation), and Guesstimate (spreadsheet for distributions). Founded in 2019 by Ozzie Gooen, evolved from earlier Guesstimate work (2016). Based in Berkeley, CA; primarily remote team of ~3-5 core contributors. Fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities. Funded by Survival and Flourishing Fund ($650K through 2022), Future Fund ($200K, 2022), and Long-Term Future Fund (ongoing). EIN 84-3847921. |
| Samotsvety | Elite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by 2030, 60% by 2050, and 25% misaligned AI takeover by 2100. Their work is widely cited in EA/rationalist communities and by policymakers. |
People
3| Slava Matyukhin | Software engineer and key Squiggle contributor at QURI. Lead developer of the Squiggle language rewrite (v0.8-0.10) and the Squiggle Hub platform. Also known as berekuk on GitHub. Previously built Kocherga (EA community space management in Moscow) and contributed to LessWrong/ForumMagnum development. Active on Squiggle from 2022 to 2025. |
| Ozzie Gooen | Founder and Executive Director of QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute). Created Guesstimate (2016) and leads development of Squiggle, a probabilistic programming language for estimation. Previously worked at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Background in programming and research focused on epistemic tools, forecasting infrastructure, and uncertainty quantification. |
| Sam Nolan | Software developer who worked at QURI (2021-2023) on the Squiggle programming language and cost-effectiveness analyses. Led the GiveWell CEA quantification project using Squiggle, finding a mean cost to double consumption of $169 (95% CI: $131-$1,185). |
Related Projects
6| SquiggleAI | LLM-powered tool for generating probabilistic models in Squiggle from natural language descriptions. |
| Metaforecast | Forecast aggregation platform combining predictions from 10+ sources into a unified search interface. |
| Squiggle Hub | Web platform for creating, sharing, and discovering Squiggle models. Features include model groups, version history, AI-assisted editing via SquiggleAI, and a growing library of community-contributed probabilistic models. Successor to Guesstimate's model sharing functionality. |
| Longterm Wiki | A self-referential documentation page describing the Longterm Wiki platform itself—a strategic intelligence tool with ~550 pages, crux mapping of ~50 uncertainties, and quality scoring across 6 dimensions. Features include entity cross-linking, interactive causal diagrams, and structured YAML database layer for structured entity data. |
| ForecastBench | Dynamic, contamination-free benchmark for evaluating LLM forecasting capabilities, published at ICLR 2025. |
| RoastMyPost | LLM-powered tool for evaluating blog posts, research papers, and other written content. Runs multiple AI evaluator personas (skeptic, methodologist, clarity checker, etc.) and produces structured feedback with scores. Free and open-source. Launched December 2025. |
Related Wiki Pages
Top Related Pages
Organization
QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)
QURI develops epistemic tools for probabilistic reasoning and forecasting, with Squiggle as their flagship project—a domain-specific programming la...
Project
SquiggleAI
An LLM-powered tool for generating probabilistic models in Squiggle from natural language descriptions.
Project
Metaforecast
A forecast aggregation platform that combines predictions from 10+ sources (Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket, Good Judgment Open) into a unified sea...
Project
Squiggle Hub
Concept
Epistemic & Forecasting Organizations (Overview)
Organizations advancing forecasting methodology, prediction aggregation, and epistemic infrastructure to improve decision-making on AI safety and e...
Key Facts
- Website
- https://www.squiggle-language.com
- Founded Date
- 2020