Nonprofit research organization developing tools for probabilistic reasoning, forecasting, and epistemic infrastructure. Key projects include Squiggle (probabilistic programming language), Squiggle Hub (model sharing platform), Metaforecast (forecast aggregation), SquiggleAI (LLM-powered estimation), RoastMyPost (LLM-powered content evaluation), and Guesstimate (spreadsheet for distributions). Founded in 2019 by Ozzie Gooen, evolved from earlier Guesstimate work (2016). Based in Berkeley, CA; primarily remote team of ~3-5 core contributors. Fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities. Funded by Survival and Flourishing Fund ($650K through 2022), Future Fund ($200K, 2022), and Long-Term Future Fund (ongoing). EIN 84-3847921.
AI for Human Reasoning FellowshipApproachAI for Human Reasoning FellowshipFLF's inaugural 12-week fellowship (July-October 2025) combined research fellowship with startup incubator format. 30 fellows received $25-50K stipends to build AI tools for human reasoning. Produc...Quality: 55/100Prediction Markets (AI Forecasting)ApproachPrediction Markets (AI Forecasting)Prediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, with platforms handling $1-3B annually. For AI saf...Quality: 56/100
Analysis
RoastMyPostProjectRoastMyPostRoastMyPost is an LLM tool (Claude Sonnet 4.5 + Perplexity) that evaluates written content through multiple specialized AI agents—fact-checking, logical fallacy detection, math verification, and mo...Quality: 35/100Longterm WikiProjectLongterm WikiA self-referential documentation page describing the Longterm Wiki platform itself—a strategic intelligence tool with ~550 pages, crux mapping of ~50 uncertainties, and quality scoring across 6 dim...Quality: 63/100Squiggle HubProjectSquiggle HubWeb platform for creating, sharing, and discovering Squiggle models. Features include model groups, version history, AI-assisted editing via SquiggleAI, and a growing library of community-contribut...GuesstimateProjectGuesstimateWeb-based spreadsheet for making estimates with probability distributions. Precursor to Squiggle. Originally created by Ozzie Gooen in 2016. Features a library of 17,000+ community models. Still ma...Foretold.ioProjectForetold.ioA prediction platform meant for large sets of judgmental predictions. Ozzie Gooen worked on this for much of 2018-2020. Later work halted to favor smaller applications and research. Currently not f...AI Capability Threshold ModelAnalysisAI Capability Threshold ModelComprehensive framework mapping AI capabilities across 5 dimensions to specific risk thresholds, finding authentication collapse/mass persuasion risks at 70-85% likelihood by 2027, bioweapons devel...Quality: 72/100
Organizations
Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF)OrganizationLong-Term Future Fund (LTFF)LTFF is a regranting program that has distributed $20M since 2017 (approximately $10M to AI safety) with median grants of $25K, filling a critical niche between personal savings and institutional f...Quality: 56/100
Other
Nuño SemperePersonNuño SempereNuño Sempere is a Spanish superforecaster who co-founded the highly successful Samotsvety forecasting group and now runs Sentinel for global catastrophe early warning, while being known for skeptic...Quality: 50/100Eli LiflandPersonEli LiflandBiographical profile of Eli Lifland, a top-ranked forecaster and AI safety researcher who co-authored the AI 2027 scenario forecast and co-founded the AI Futures Project. The page documents his for...Quality: 58/100Ozzie GooenPersonOzzie GooenFounder and Executive Director of QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute). Created Guesstimate (2016) and leads development of Squiggle, a probabilistic programming language for estimation...Ben GoldhaberPersonBen GoldhaberProjects Lead at the Future of Life Foundation since early 2025, focused on incubating teams working on differentially beneficial technology. Former Director of FAR.Labs (mid-2023 to early 2025). B...Slava MatyukhinPersonSlava MatyukhinSoftware engineer and key Squiggle contributor at QURI. Lead developer of the Squiggle language rewrite (v0.8-0.10) and the Squiggle Hub platform. Also known as berekuk on GitHub. Previously built ...
Concepts
Epistemic Orgs OverviewEpistemic Orgs OverviewOrganizations advancing forecasting methodology, prediction aggregation, and epistemic infrastructure to improve decision-making on AI safety and existential risks.Quality: 70/100AI-Assisted Knowledge ManagementConceptAI-Assisted Knowledge ManagementA comprehensive survey of AI-assisted knowledge management tools (Obsidian plugins, Notion AI, NotebookLM, RAG frameworks) with specific cost figures ($4-6/page for Longterm Wiki pipeline) and a co...Quality: 48/100
Key Debates
AI Risk Critical Uncertainties ModelCruxAI Risk Critical Uncertainties ModelIdentifies 35 high-leverage uncertainties in AI risk across compute (scaling breakdown at 10^26-10^30 FLOP), governance (10% P(US-China treaty by 2030)), and capabilities (autonomous R&D 3 years aw...Quality: 71/100Open vs Closed Source AICruxOpen vs Closed Source AIComprehensive analysis of open vs closed source AI debate, documenting that open model performance gap narrowed from 8% to 1.7% in 2024, with 1.2B+ Llama downloads by April 2025 and DeepSeek R1 dem...Quality: 60/100
Risks
AI ProliferationRiskAI ProliferationAI proliferation accelerated dramatically as the capability gap narrowed from 18 to 6 months (2022-2024), with open-source models like DeepSeek R1 now matching frontier performance. US export contr...Quality: 60/100