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2005·ScienceDirect(peer-reviewed)·sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207024001250

Author

Peter Suber

Credibility Rating

4/5

High(4)

High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.

Rating inherited from publication venue: ScienceDirect

A peer-reviewed journal article from ScienceDirect that likely contributes empirical research or theoretical analysis relevant to AI safety, though the specific content cannot be determined without access to the full article.

Paper Details

Citations

Year

2005

DOI:10.63485/q0e7m-va538

Metadata

journal articleprimary source

Cited by 4 pages

Page	Type	Quality
The Case For AI Existential Risk	Argument	66.0
Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)	Organization	55.0
XPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament)	Project	54.0
Instrumental Convergence	Risk	64.0

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## Article preview

- [Abstract](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207024001250#preview-section-abstract)
- [Introduction](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207024001250#preview-section-introduction)
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- [References (38)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207024001250#preview-section-references)
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## [International Journal of Forecasting](https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-forecasting "Go to International Journal of Forecasting on ScienceDirect")

[Volume 41, Issue 2](https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-forecasting/vol/41/issue/2 "Go to table of contents for this volume/issue"), April–June 2025, Pages 499-516

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# Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament [☆](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207024001250\#aep-article-footnote-id1), [☆☆](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207024001250\#aep-article-footnote-id2)

Author links open overlay panelEzraKargera, JoshRosenbergb, ZacharyJacobsb, MollyHickmanb, Phillip E.Tetlockc

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[https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.11.008](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.11.008 "Persistent link using digital object identifier") [Get rights and content](https://s100.copyright.com/AppDispatchServlet?publisherName=ELS&contentID=S0169207024001250&orderBeanReset=true)

## Abstract

A multi-stage persuasion-forecasting tournament asked specialists and generalists (“superforecasters”) to explain their probability judgments of short- and long-run existential threats to humanity. Specialists were more pessimistic, especially on long-run threa

... (truncated, 14 KB total)

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