Philip E. Tetlock - Wikipedia

reference

Wikipedia·en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock

Credibility Rating

3/5

Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: Wikipedia

Tetlock's forecasting research is frequently cited in AI safety contexts for improving calibration, evaluating predictions about AI timelines, and informing better epistemic practices in policy and risk assessment.

Metadata

Importance: 45/100wiki pagereference

Summary

Wikipedia biography of Philip Tetlock, a prominent psychologist known for his research on expert political judgment, forecasting accuracy, and the superforecasting methodology. His work demonstrates that structured, probabilistic thinking and calibrated uncertainty significantly outperform traditional expert prediction, with implications for decision-making under uncertainty in high-stakes domains including AI governance.

Key Points

•Tetlock's 20-year study showed expert political predictions were barely better than chance, published in 'Expert Political Judgment' (2005)
•Developed the 'superforecasting' framework, identifying traits of unusually accurate forecasters including active open-mindedness and calibration
•Co-authored 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' with Dan Gardner, popularizing probabilistic reasoning
•His Good Judgment Project demonstrated that aggregating forecasts from trained amateurs can outperform intelligence analysts
•His work is highly relevant to AI safety evaluation, forecasting AI timelines, and improving epistemic practices in governance

Cited by 2 pages

Page	Type	Quality
Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)	Organization	55.0
Philip Tetlock	Person	73.0

Cached Content Preview

HTTP 200Fetched Mar 20, 202659 KB

# Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock

Canadian-American political scientist (born 1954)

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| [![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/99/Question_book-new.svg/120px-Question_book-new.svg.png)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Question_book-new.svg) | This [biography of a living person](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Biographies_of_living_persons "Wikipedia:Biographies of living persons") **relies too much on [references](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability "Wikipedia:Verifiability") to [primary sources](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Biographies_of_living_persons#Misuse_of_primary_sources "Wikipedia:Biographies of living persons")**. Please help by adding [secondary or tertiary sources](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:No_original_research#Primary,_secondary_and_tertiary_sources "Wikipedia:No original research"). Contentious material about living persons that is unsourced or poorly sourced **must be removed immediately**, especially if potentially [libelous](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Libel "Wikipedia:Libel") or harmful.<br>_Find sources:_ ["Philip E. Tetlock"](https://www.google.com/search?as_eq=wikipedia&q=%22Philip+E.+Tetlock%22)– [news](https://www.google.com/search?tbm=nws&q=%22Philip+E.+Tetlock%22+-wikipedia&tbs=ar:1) **·** [newspapers](https://www.google.com/search?&q=%22Philip+E.+Tetlock%22&tbs=bkt:s&tbm=bks) **·** [books](https://www.google.com/search?tbs=bks:1&q=%22Philip+E.+Tetlock%22+-wikipedia) **·** [scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22Philip+E.+Tetlock%22) **·** [JSTOR](https://www.jstor.org/action/doBasicSearch?Query=%22Philip+E.+Tetlock%22&acc=on&wc=on)_(September 2018)__([Learn how and when to remove this message](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:Maintenance_template_removal "Help:Maintenance template removal"))_ |

| Philip E. Tetlock |
| --- |
| [![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6d/Philip_Tetlock_at_World_Economic_Forum.jpg/500px-Philip_Tetlock_at_World_Economic_Forum.jpg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Philip_Tetlock_at_World_Economic_Forum.jpg)<br>Tetlock at the 2017 [World Economic Forum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Economic_Forum "World Economic Forum") |
| Born | (1954-03-02) March 2, 1954 (age71)[\[1\]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock#cite_note-apabio-1)<br>[Toronto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto "Toronto"), [Ontario](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario "Ontario"), Canada |
| Almamater | [University of British Columbia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_British_Columbia "University of British Columbia") ( [BA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bachelor_of_Arts "Bachelor of Arts"), [MA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M.A. "M.A."))<br>[Yale University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yale_University "Yale University") ( [PhD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PhD "PhD")) |
| **Scientific career** |
| Fields | [political forecasting](https://en.wik

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