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The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute Blog

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quantifieduncertainty.org·quantifieduncertainty.org/

QURI is a nonprofit focused on forecasting, epistemics, and uncertainty quantification tools relevant to AI safety decision-making, producing research and software like Squiggle and Metaforecast.

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Summary

The QURI blog is the primary publication hub for the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, a nonprofit researching forecasting and epistemics to improve long-term decision-making. It covers topics including LLM evaluation methods, uncertainty quantification tools like Squiggle, AI-driven epistemic risks, and automated research workflows. The blog bridges technical AI safety and practical epistemics tooling.

Key Points

  • QURI develops forecasting and epistemics tools (e.g., Squiggle, SquiggleAI, RoastMyPost) aimed at improving decision-making under uncertainty.
  • Recent posts explore LLM variance via 'opinion fuzzing', automated research wikis, and systematic document quality checks.
  • QURI collaborated with Arb Research on a 2025 shallow review of technical AI safety, with an interactive website at shallowreview.ai.
  • The blog raises concerns about AI-driven epistemic lock-in, relevant to long-term AI safety and societal epistemics.
  • Content spans speculative analysis, tool announcements, and practical methodology for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in AI outputs.

Cited by 5 pages

PageTypeQuality
QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)Organization48.0
Survival and Flourishing FundOrganization59.0
Longterm WikiProject63.0
MetaforecastProject35.0
SquiggleAIProject37.0

2 FactBase facts citing this source

EntityPropertyValueAs Of
QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)Founded Date2019
GuesstimateFounded Date2016

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The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute Blog 
 

 
 

 

 
 

 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 The 
 Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute

 
 QURI is a nonprofit research organization researching forecasting and epistemics to improve the long-term future of humanity.

 
 
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 Ozzie Gooen 
 

 29 Jan 2026 

 
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 Upcoming Workshops: Automated Research Wikis with Claude Code
 
 

 I’ve been using Claude Code to automate wiki and book production. Lately, it’s become surprisingly straightforward to generate useful, many-page research documents, especially when paired with online document libraries.

If you’re in the Bay Area, I’m running two workshops soon:

 * MoxSF (next Thursday, San Francisco): 90

 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 Ozzie Gooen 
 

 20 Dec 2025 

 
 Paid 
 Members 
 
 

 
 
 Opinion Fuzzing: A Proposal for Reducing & Exploring Variance in LLM Judgments Via Sampling
 
 

 Summary
LLM outputs vary substantially across models, prompts, and simulated perspectives. I propose "opinion fuzzing" for systematically sampling across these dimensions to quantify and understand this variance. The concept is simple, but making it practically usable will require thoughtful tooling. In this piece I discuss what opinion fuzzing

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 Ozzie Gooen 
 

 17 Dec 2025 

 
 Paid 
 Members 
 
 

 
 
 New Collaboration: Shallow Review of Technical AI Safety, 2025
 
 

 We recently collaborated with the Arb Research team on their latest technical AI safety review. This document provides a strong overview of the space, and we built a website to make it significantly more manageable.

The interactive website: shallowreview.ai

The review examines major research directions in technical AI safety

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 Ozzie Gooen 
 

 10 Dec 2025 

 
 Paid 
 Members 
 
 

 
 
 Announcing RoastMyPost
 
 

 Today we're releasing RoastMyPost, a new application for blog post evaluation using LLMs.

Try it Here

TLDR

 * RoastMyPost is a new QURI application that uses LLMs and code to evaluate blog posts and research documents.
 * It uses a variety of LLM evaluators. Most are narrow checks: Fact Check,

 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 Ozzie Gooen 
 

 01 Nov 2025 

 
 Paid 
 Members 
 
 

 
 
 Beyond Spell Check: 15 Automatable Writing Quality Checks
 
 

 I've been developing RoastMyPost (currently in beta) and wrestling with how to systematically analyze documents. The space of possible document checks is vast, easily thousands of potential analyses.

Building on familiar concepts like "spell check" and "fact check," I've made a taxonomy

 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 Ozzie Gooen 
 

 31 Oct 2025 

 
 Paid 
 Members 
 
 

 
 
 Updated 

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