Personnel·tvnqHg9lUb·Record·Organization

Personnel: James Grugett at Manifold (Prediction Market) (Co-founder)

Verdictconfirmed99%

1 check · 7/20/2026

1 → confirmed

Our claim

entire record

Person: XasVEVBTGo
Role: Co-founder
Role Type: key-person
Start Date: December 2021
Is Founder: Yes
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifold_(prediction_market)
Notes: Co-founder of Manifold Markets. Carnegie Mellon graduate. Later moved to work on Codebuff (YC Fall 2024 batch). Reduced involvement circa 2024–2025.

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifold_(prediction_market)resource

confirmed99%Haiku 4.5 · 7/20/2026

NoteThe source directly confirms all key fields in the record: (1) person is James Grugett ✓, (2) org is Manifold (Prediction Market) ✓, (3) role is Co-founder ✓, and (4) startDate is December 2021 ✓. The Wikipedia article explicitly states 'Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett' and lists 'Founder(s) Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett' in the infobox. All claimed fields match the source exactly.

Case № tvnqHg9lUbFiled 7/20/2026Confidence 99%