Guesstimate
maintainedWeb-based spreadsheet for making estimates with probability distributions. Precursor to Squiggle. Originally created by Ozzie Gooen in 2016. Features a library of 17,000+ community models. Still maintained but active development shifted to Squiggle and Squiggle Hub.
Organizations
1| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | Nonprofit research organization developing tools for probabilistic reasoning, forecasting, and epistemic infrastructure. Key projects include Squiggle (probabilistic programming language), Squiggle Hub (model sharing platform), Metaforecast (forecast aggregation), SquiggleAI (LLM-powered estimation), RoastMyPost (LLM-powered content evaluation), and Guesstimate (spreadsheet for distributions). Founded in 2019 by Ozzie Gooen, evolved from earlier Guesstimate work (2016). Based in Berkeley, CA; primarily remote team of ~3-5 core contributors. Fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities. Funded by Survival and Flourishing Fund ($650K through 2022), Future Fund ($200K, 2022), and Long-Term Future Fund (ongoing). EIN 84-3847921. |
People
1| Ozzie Gooen | Founder and Executive Director of QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute). Created Guesstimate (2016) and leads development of Squiggle, a probabilistic programming language for estimation. Previously worked at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Background in programming and research focused on epistemic tools, forecasting infrastructure, and uncertainty quantification. |
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Key Facts
- Founded Date
- 2016
- Website
- https://www.getguesstimate.com
- Founded By
- Ozzie Gooen