Sentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight)

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---
title: "Sentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight)"
description: Global catastrophic risk foresight and early warning organization founded by Nuño Sempere, providing weekly risk assessments from elite forecasters
importance: 22
lastEdited: "2026-02-01"
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quality: 39
llmSummary: Sentinel is a 2024-founded foresight organization led by Nuño Sempere that processes millions of news items weekly through AI filtering and elite forecaster assessment to identify global catastrophic risks, publishing findings via newsletter and podcast. The page describes their multi-stage detection pipeline and team composition but provides no concrete examples of their risk assessments, probabilities assigned, or track record.
subcategory: epistemic-orgs
entityType: organization
---
import {EntityLink, Section} from '@components/wiki';

## Quick Assessment

| Aspect | Assessment |
|--------|-----------|
| **Type** | Foresight and emergency response organization |
| **Founded** | 2024 |
| **Focus** | Anticipating and reacting to large-scale catastrophes |
| **Output** | Weekly newsletters, Sentinel Minutes podcast |
| **Team** | Elite forecasters including members from <EntityLink id="E560">Samotsvety</EntityLink>, <EntityLink id="E532">Good Judgment</EntityLink>, <EntityLink id="E569">Swift Centre</EntityLink> |
| **Website** | [sentinel-team.org](https://sentinel-team.org) |

## Key Links

| Source | Link |
|--------|------|
| Official Website | [sentinelswiki.com](https://sentinelswiki.com/index.php/Main_Page) |
| Wikipedia | [en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel) |

## Overview

**Sentinel** is a foresight and emergency response team focused on anticipating and reacting to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature.[^1] Founded by <EntityLink id="E579">Nuño Sempere</EntityLink>, the organization processes millions of news items weekly to identify potential global risks, using language models for initial prioritization before engaging elite forecasters to assess threats and assign probabilities.

The organization emerged from Sempere's work with <EntityLink id="E560">Samotsvety Forecasting</EntityLink>, building on that group's expertise in probabilistic risk assessment. Sentinel aims to provide an early warning system for catastrophic risks by combining automated news monitoring with human forecaster judgment.

## Core Activities

### Risk Detection Pipeline

Sentinel operates a multi-stage process for identifying global risks:

1. **Automated Collection**: Processing millions of news items weekly from global sources
2. **AI Prioritization**: Using language models to filter and prioritize potentially significant events
3. **Forecaster Assessment**: Elite forecasters evaluate flagged items and assign probability estimates
4. **Publication**: Weekly summaries published via newsletter and podcast

### Weekly Briefs

The organization publishes regular assessments covering topics including:

- **AI risks**: Developments in artificial intelligence that may pose catastrophic risks
- **Geopolitical threats**: International conflicts, nuclear risks, and escalation scenarios
- **Emerging catastrophes**: Novel threats that lack historical precedent
- **Probability updates**: Changes in forecasted likelihoods for tracked risks

Each brief includes a "risk status indicator" providing an at-a-glance assessment of near-term catastrophic risk levels.

## Team

The Sentinel team combines expertise from leading forecasting organizations:

- **Nuño Sempere** - Head of Foresight; co-founder of <EntityLink id="E560">Samotsvety Forecasting</EntityLink>; fellow in 2025 <EntityLink id="E585">AI for Human Reasoning Fellowship</EntityLink>; produces monthly forecasting newsletters
- **<EntityLink id="E580">Vidur Kapur</EntityLink>** - Superforecaster at Good Judgment; also forecasts for Swift Centre, Samotsvety, and RAND
- **Tolga Bilge** - AI Policy Researcher at <EntityLink id="E426">ControlAI</EntityLink>
- **Rai Sur** - Podcast narrator for Sentinel Minutes
- **belikewater** - Forecaster

## Media and Distribution

### Newsletter

Sentinel publishes via Substack, offering both free and paid subscription tiers. Paid members gain access to community Slack channels and provide direct support for the organization's detection work.[^1]

### Sentinel Minutes Podcast

The organization produces a podcast summarizing key findings and risk assessments, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and RSS feeds. The podcast provides an accessible audio format for weekly risk updates.

## Relationship to AI Safety

Sentinel's work intersects with AI safety in several ways:

- **AI risk tracking**: Regular monitoring of AI developments that could pose catastrophic risks
- **Methodology**: Uses language models as part of their detection pipeline, providing a case study in AI-assisted risk assessment
- **Community overlap**: Team members active in effective altruism and rationalist communities where AI safety is a central concern

The organization represents an application of forecasting methods developed in the EA/rationalist ecosystem to the practical problem of catastrophic risk early warning.

## Key Uncertainties

- How effective is the AI-assisted detection pipeline at catching novel, unprecedented risks?
- What is the optimal balance between false positives (unnecessary alarm) and false negatives (missed warnings)?
- How do Sentinel's risk assessments compare to those from traditional intelligence or security organizations?
- Can the organization scale its impact while maintaining forecaster quality?
- What evidence would demonstrate the value of speculative risk forecasting?

## Sources

[^1]: [Sentinel - About](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/about)