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AI Ownership - Countries
AI Ownership - Countries
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The Coordination Dilemma
The distribution of AI capabilities among nations creates a classic coordination dilemma analyzed in the international coordination game.
Game-Theoretic Dynamics
Game-theoretic modeling shows that defection (racing) mathematically dominates cooperation when actors believe cooperation probability falls below 50%—a threshold currently unmet in US-China relations. This creates multipolar trap dynamics where rational actors pursuing individual interests produce collectively catastrophic outcomes.
Both superpowers are "turbo-charging development with almost no guardrails" because neither wants to slow down first.
Why Geographic Concentration Matters for Safety
Mechanisms
| Mechanism | Effect | Example |
|---|---|---|
| First-mover pressure | Reduces safety investment | Winner-take-all competition |
| Export controls | Strains cooperation | US semiconductor restrictions |
| Coordination failure | Enables racing | No binding agreements |
Current International Landscape
Coordination Mechanisms
| Initiative | Scope | Budget | Effectiveness |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Safety Institute network | 11 countries | ~$150M combined | Emerging |
| Council of Europe AI Treaty | 14 signatories | N/A | First binding agreement |
| US-China bilateral dialogues | 2 countries | N/A | Limited by competition |
| Private sector investment | Global | $100B+ annually | Dwarfs public efforts |
Key Uncertainties
| Question | Possible Answers |
|---|---|
| Do US-China dynamics inevitably tend toward confrontation? | Confrontation vs. cooperation through mutual catastrophic risk awareness |
| Do democratic nations maintain structural advantages? | Innovation ecosystem vs. state-directed focus |
| Can alternative power centers influence trajectory? | EU, UK, emerging economies as third pole vs. bipolar lock-in |
What Drives Country AI Distribution?
Causal factors affecting national AI capabilities. 94% of AI funding in US; US-China competition dominates.
Scenarios Influenced
| Scenario | Effect | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| AI Takeover | — | weak |
| Human-Caused Catastrophe | — | weak |
| Long-term Lock-in | ↑ Increases | strong |