Longterm Wiki
Updated 2026-01-06HistoryData
Page StatusAI Transition Model
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Civilizational Competence

Entry

Civilizational Competence

Model RoleRoot Factor (Societal)
Key ParametersGovernance, Epistemics, Societal Resilience, Adaptability
Primary OutcomesLong-term Trajectory, Transition Smoothness
Related
ai-transition-model-scenarios
Long-term Trajectory
ai-transition-model-factors
Transition Turbulence
ai-transition-model-parameters
Regulatory CapacityInstitutional QualityInternational CoordinationSocietal ResilienceEpistemic HealthSocietal Trust

Civilizational Competence refers to humanity's collective ability to navigate the AI transition successfully. This encompasses governance capacity, epistemic health, and societal adaptability.

Key Dimensions

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Relationship to Scenarios

Civilizational Competence acts as a protective factor - higher competence decreases risk across multiple scenarios:

  • AI Takeover: Better governance and oversight reduces probability
  • Human-Caused Catastrophe: Better coordination prevents misuse escalation
  • Long-term Lock-in: Shapes whether lock-in is beneficial or harmful

What Determines Civilizational Competence?

The three pillars of societal capacity, their drivers, and key uncertainties.

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