Page StatusAI Transition Model
14 backlinks
2
Structure2/15Structure: 2/15Automated score based on measurable content features.Word count0/2Tables0/3Diagrams0/2Internal links0/2Citations0/3Prose ratio2/2Overview section0/10TablesData tables in the page0DiagramsCharts and visual diagrams0Internal LinksLinks to other wiki pages0FootnotesFootnote citations [^N] with sources0External LinksMarkdown links to outside URLs%0%Bullet RatioPercentage of content in bullet lists
Summary
This page contains only React component imports with no actual content about racing intensity or transition turbulence factors. It appears to be a placeholder or template awaiting content population.
Issues1
StructureNo tables or diagrams - consider adding visual content
Racing Intensity
Entry
Racing Intensity
This page contains only React component imports with no actual content about racing intensity or transition turbulence factors. It appears to be a placeholder or template awaiting content population.
DirectionLower is better
Current TrendHigh (safety timelines compressed 70-80% post-ChatGPT)
Key MeasurementSafety evaluation duration, safety budget allocation, deployment delays
Related
Risks
AI Development Racing DynamicsRiskAI Development Racing DynamicsRacing dynamics analysis shows competitive pressure has shortened safety evaluation timelines by 40-60% since ChatGPT's launch, with commercial labs reducing safety work from 12 weeks to 4-6 weeks....Quality: 72/100
ai-transition-model-metrics
Safety ResearchAi Transition Model MetricSafety ResearchComprehensive analysis of AI safety research capacity shows ~1,100 FTE researchers globally (600 technical, 500 governance) with $150-400M annual funding, representing severe under-resourcing (1:10...Quality: 62/100Lab BehaviorAi Transition Model MetricLab BehaviorComprehensive tracking of AI lab safety practices finds 53% average compliance with voluntary commitments, dramatic compression of safety evaluation timelines from months to days at OpenAI, and 25+...Quality: 55/100Expert OpinionAi Transition Model MetricExpert OpinionComprehensive analysis of expert beliefs on AI risk shows median 5-10% P(doom) but extreme disagreement (0.01-99% range), with AGI forecasts compressing from 50+ years (2020) to ~5 years (2024). De...Quality: 61/100Compute & HardwareAi Transition Model MetricCompute & HardwareComprehensive metrics tracking finds training compute grows 4-5x annually (30+ models at 10²⁵ FLOP by mid-2025), algorithmic efficiency doubles every 8 months (95% CI: 5-14), and NVIDIA holds 80-90...
Models
Racing Dynamics Game Theory ModelModelRacing Dynamics Game Theory ModelGame-theoretic analysis of competitive pressures in AI development, modeling safety-capability tradeoffs as prisoner's dilemma with asymmetric payoffs.Racing Dynamics Impact ModelModelRacing Dynamics Impact ModelThis model quantifies how competitive pressure between AI labs reduces safety investment by 30-60% compared to coordinated scenarios and increases alignment failure probability by 2-5x through pris...Quality: 61/100Multipolar Trap Dynamics ModelModelMultipolar Trap Dynamics ModelGame-theoretic analysis of AI competition traps showing universal cooperation probability drops from 81% (2 actors) to 21% (15 actors), with 5-10% catastrophic lock-in risk and 20-35% partial coord...Quality: 61/100AI Lab Incentives ModelModelAI Lab Incentives ModelThis model analyzes competitive and reputational pressures on lab safety decisions. It identifies conditions where market dynamics systematically underweight safety investment.
14 backlinks
The degree of competitive pressure driving AI development speed over safety. High intensity leads to safety corner-cutting and premature deployment.
No entity found for ID "tmc-E242". Ensure the entity exists in ai-transition-model.yaml.
What links here
- Misuse Potentialai-transition-model-factorcomposed-of
- Safety Researchai-transition-model-metricmeasures
- Lab Behaviorai-transition-model-metricmeasures
- Expert Opinionai-transition-model-metricmeasures
- Compute & Hardwareai-transition-model-metricmeasures
- Safety-Capability Gapai-transition-model-parameter
- Computeai-transition-model-subitemaffects
- Carlsmith's Six-Premise Argumentmodelmodels
- Racing Dynamics Impact Modelmodelmodels
- Multipolar Trap Dynamics Modelmodelaffects
- Racing Dynamics Game Theory Modelmodelmodels
- AI Lab Incentives Modelmodelaffects
- AI Risk Parameter Interaction Network Modelmodelaffects
- AI Safety Culture Equilibrium Modelmodelmodels