Skip to content
Longterm Wiki

Epoch AI

epoch-aiorganizationPath: /knowledge-base/organizations/epoch-ai/
E125Entity ID (EID)
← Back to page32 backlinksQuality: 51Updated: 2026-01-29
Page Recorddatabase.json — merged from MDX frontmatter + Entity YAML + computed metrics at build time
{
  "id": "epoch-ai",
  "wikiId": "E125",
  "path": "/knowledge-base/organizations/epoch-ai/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/organizations/epoch-ai.mdx",
  "title": "Epoch AI",
  "quality": 51,
  "readerImportance": 87.5,
  "researchImportance": 7.5,
  "tacticalValue": 70,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-01-29",
  "dateCreated": null,
  "summary": "Epoch AI maintains comprehensive databases tracking 3,200+ ML models showing 4.4x annual compute growth and projects data exhaustion 2026-2032. Their empirical work directly informed EU AI Act's 10^25 FLOP threshold and US EO 14110, with their Epoch Capabilities Index showing ~90% acceleration in AI progress since April 2024.",
  "description": "Epoch AI is a research institute tracking AI development trends through comprehensive databases on training compute, model parameters, and hardware capabilities.",
  "ratings": {
    "novelty": 2.5,
    "rigor": 6,
    "completeness": 7.5,
    "actionability": 3.5
  },
  "category": "organizations",
  "subcategory": "epistemic-orgs",
  "clusters": [
    "community",
    "epistemics",
    "ai-safety"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 4590,
    "tableCount": 31,
    "diagramCount": 1,
    "internalLinks": 16,
    "externalLinks": 67,
    "footnoteCount": 0,
    "bulletRatio": 0.11,
    "sectionCount": 64,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 15
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 100,
  "updateFrequency": 45,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 4590,
  "unconvertedLinks": [
    {
      "text": "arXiv:2202.05924",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924",
      "resourceId": "a9007e0713dc6b7f",
      "resourceTitle": "[2202.05924] Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning"
    },
    {
      "text": "epoch.ai",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai",
      "resourceId": "c660a684a423d4ac",
      "resourceTitle": "Epoch AI - AI Research & Compute Analytics Organization"
    },
    {
      "text": "epoch.ai",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/",
      "resourceId": "c660a684a423d4ac",
      "resourceTitle": "Epoch AI - AI Research & Compute Analytics Organization"
    },
    {
      "text": "Epoch AI",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/",
      "resourceId": "c660a684a423d4ac",
      "resourceTitle": "Epoch AI - AI Research & Compute Analytics Organization"
    },
    {
      "text": "FrontierMath Tier 4",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark",
      "resourceId": "46010026d8feac35",
      "resourceTitle": "FrontierMath benchmark"
    },
    {
      "text": "Epoch Trends",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/trends",
      "resourceId": "b029bfc231e620cc",
      "resourceTitle": "Epoch AI: AI Trends & Metrics Dashboard"
    },
    {
      "text": "arXiv:2202.05924",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924",
      "resourceId": "a9007e0713dc6b7f",
      "resourceTitle": "[2202.05924] Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning"
    },
    {
      "text": "METR's Time Horizon benchmark",
      "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/",
      "resourceId": "271fc5f73a8304b2",
      "resourceTitle": "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks - METR"
    },
    {
      "text": "how many models will exceed compute thresholds",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/blog/model-counts-compute-thresholds",
      "resourceId": "080da6a9f43ad376",
      "resourceTitle": "Epoch AI projections"
    },
    {
      "text": "arXiv:2202.05924",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924",
      "resourceId": "a9007e0713dc6b7f",
      "resourceTitle": "[2202.05924] Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning"
    },
    {
      "text": "Epoch Blog",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030",
      "resourceId": "9587b65b1192289d",
      "resourceTitle": "Can AI Scaling Continue Through 2030? (Epoch AI)"
    },
    {
      "text": "Epoch Data Insights",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-capabilities-progress-has-sped-up",
      "resourceId": "663417bdb09208a4",
      "resourceTitle": "AI Capabilities Progress Has Sped Up (Epoch AI Analysis)"
    },
    {
      "text": "directly incorporates Epoch's compute trend data",
      "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-training-computation",
      "resourceId": "87ae03cc6eaca6c6",
      "resourceTitle": "Our World in Data AI training"
    },
    {
      "text": "Epoch AI Website",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/",
      "resourceId": "c660a684a423d4ac",
      "resourceTitle": "Epoch AI - AI Research & Compute Analytics Organization"
    },
    {
      "text": "ML Trends Dashboard",
      "url": "https://epoch.ai/trends",
      "resourceId": "b029bfc231e620cc",
      "resourceTitle": "Epoch AI: AI Trends & Metrics Dashboard"
    },
    {
      "text": "Compute Trends Across Three Eras (arXiv:2202.05924)",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924",
      "resourceId": "a9007e0713dc6b7f",
      "resourceTitle": "[2202.05924] Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning"
    },
    {
      "text": "Announcing Epoch (EA Forum)",
      "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zqRDNChFburJMmpqK/announcing-epoch-a-research-organization-investigating-the",
      "resourceId": "1d1675ab3f2217f9",
      "resourceTitle": "Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI"
    }
  ],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 17,
  "convertedLinkCount": 0,
  "backlinkCount": 32,
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "high",
    "score": 75,
    "factors": [
      "biographical-claims",
      "no-citations"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "organization",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 16,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "ai-timelines",
        "title": "AI Timelines",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/ai-timelines/",
        "similarity": 16
      },
      {
        "id": "metaculus",
        "title": "Metaculus",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/organizations/metaculus/",
        "similarity": 16
      },
      {
        "id": "rethink-priorities",
        "title": "Rethink Priorities",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/organizations/rethink-priorities/",
        "similarity": 16
      },
      {
        "id": "large-language-models",
        "title": "Large Language Models",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/capabilities/large-language-models/",
        "similarity": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "reasoning",
        "title": "Reasoning and Planning",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/capabilities/reasoning/",
        "similarity": 15
      }
    ]
  },
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 7,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 18,
      "diagrams": 2,
      "internalLinks": 37,
      "externalLinks": 23,
      "footnotes": 14,
      "references": 14
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 31,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 16,
      "externalLinks": 67,
      "footnotes": 0,
      "references": 32,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 0,
      "quotesTotal": 0,
      "accuracyChecked": 0,
      "accuracyTotal": 0
    },
    "items": {
      "summary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "red",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "green",
      "diagrams": "amber",
      "internalLinks": "amber",
      "externalLinks": "green",
      "footnotes": "red",
      "references": "green",
      "quotes": "red",
      "accuracy": "red"
    },
    "ratingsString": "N:2.5 R:6 A:3.5 C:7.5"
  },
  "readerRank": 33,
  "researchRank": 565,
  "recommendedScore": 159.27
}
External Links
{
  "grokipedia": "https://grokipedia.com/page/Epoch_AI",
  "eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/epoch-ai"
}
Backlinks (32)
idtitletyperelationship
scaling-lawsAI Scaling Lawsconcept
ai-timelinesAI Timelinesconcept
critical-uncertaintiesAI Risk Critical Uncertainties Modelcrux
capability-alignment-raceCapability-Alignment Race Modelanalysis
ai-compute-scaling-metricsAI Compute Scaling Metricsanalysis
language-modelsLarge Language Modelscapability
reasoningReasoning and Planningcapability
is-ai-xrisk-realIs AI Existential Risk Real?crux
why-alignment-hardWhy Alignment Might Be Hardargument
agi-timelineAGI Timelineconcept
__index__/knowledge-base/forecastingForecastingconcept
bioweapons-ai-upliftAI Uplift Assessment Modelanalysis
capability-threshold-modelCapability Threshold Modelanalysis
planning-for-frontier-lab-scalingPlanning for Frontier Lab Scalinganalysis
racing-dynamics-impactRacing Dynamics Impact Modelanalysis
safety-research-valueExpected Value of AI Safety Researchanalysis
epistemic-orgs-overviewEpistemic & Forecasting Organizations (Overview)concept
friForecasting Research Instituteorganization
__index__/knowledge-base/organizationsOrganizationsconcept
safety-orgs-overviewAI Safety Organizations (Overview)concept
samotsvetySamotsvetyorganization
stanford-haiStanford HAI (Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence)organization
dustin-moskovitzDustin Moskovitzperson
ai-forecastingAI-Augmented Forecastingapproach
coordination-techAI Governance Coordination Technologiesapproach
eval-saturationEval Saturation & The Evals Gapapproach
flexhegFlexHEG (Flexible Hardware-Enabled Guarantees)project
thresholdsCompute Thresholdsconcept
us-executive-orderUS Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy AIpolicy
existential-riskExistential Risk from AIconcept
knowledge-monopolyAI Knowledge Monopolyrisk
superintelligenceSuperintelligenceconcept
Longterm Wiki